Hi, hi, good afternoon. Wednesday has a nine-game slate baseball starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. We will chat about it and maybe make money in the process.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game notes
Biggest money line favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the biggest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Yu Darvish, $ 9,300, San Diego Padres (-240) vs. Los Angeles Angels (+195) – Really, very interesting line for tonight. Darvish is planned to take the hill and is a massive favorite, but is it really justified? His season has been down since July, and he has shown no signs of getting back on track. He spent time on the 10-day injury list in August and returned two weeks ago. Darvish was met by two bad starts against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, which marked him with a total of 10 races (nine earned) in 13 hits through 8 2⁄3 round. With the bad starts, his numbers since July show 5.33 FIP, 0.371 wOBA and 13 home runs allowed. For reference, in April to June, Darvish had a 3.06 FIP, a .262 wOBA and only 10 home runs allowed. Quite a difference, right?
With this in mind, the angels are a very interesting play tonight. Believe me, I’m not thrilled at all to support them in any capacity, but a few pieces caught my attention. Angel’s total run through the first five laps is currently set at 1.5. You read that right, 1.5. The one above is -105 while the one below is -115. Since July, Darvish has made nine starts and has allowed 33 races through the first five laps. It gives him a 7.75 ERA, a .365 wOBA and a 5.41 FIP. He also has a massive 2.8 HR / 9. Seeing a team with 1.5 teams in total at -105 seems wild with these numbers presented. If you want to take this even further, the Angels’ money line through the first five rounds is +155. This Padres team is really struggling offensively, and has averaged four races in the last five games.
Highest estimated total
Toronto Blue Jays (+105; 4.5 races) vs. New York Yankees (-125; 4.5 races) 10 races – Two games tonight have an estimated run of 10 races tonight, one of which is this one at Yankee Stadium. None of the teams have been consistent in switching to the total. Honestly, we’re talking about two teams at the bottom of the league that do. The Blue Jays have done so only 44.7% of the time while the Yankees are now the worst in the league, passing the Rockies at 43.3%.
Tonight it will be played Alek Manoah ($ 8,400) touch Luis Gil ($ 7,000). Gil gets the call from Triple-A to get this start while Manoah hopes to build on his first appearance against the Yankees when he shut them out through seven innings. Gil has not yet allowed races in 15 2⁄3 He has played in the majors, which include three starts against the Red Sox, Mariners and Orioles. He has a very good strikeout upside, and puts out 11.6 K / 9 in 46 1/3 innings in Triple-A. The biggest bank on him is his command, which has also shown itself in the majors. Luckily for him, the Blue Jays are a free-swinging team and have one of the lowest BB% against right-handers at 8. I’m not convinced that this game goes over 10 races, so I would be inclined to underestimate this one.
Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays of the New York Yankees
Both matches have a chance of rain as the game progresses, so this may be more of a delay in the game than a delayed start. Both have a significant concern, so keep an eye on these.
Divides into Start
Pitchers vs. Left-handed batteries
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Vladimir Gutierrez, .326, 6.04
Alec Mills, .375, 4.97
Alek Manoah, .336, 4.72
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Nathan Eovaldi, .281, 2.39
Mike Minor, .319, 3.08
Frankie Montas, .295, 3.18
Pitchers vs. Right-handed batteries
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Dallas Keuchel, .341, 5.49
Matt Harvey, .373, 4.68
Mike Minor, .327, 4.60
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Freddy Peralta, .251, 2.51
Kyle Gibson, .252, 3.35
Nathan Eovaldi, .318, 3.37
Can build around
Nathan Eovaldi, Boston Red Sox vs.. Tampa Bay Rays, $ 9,500 – Wednesday’s pitching selection is not exactly full of options to choose from. However, I like that Eovaldi goes against the rays for several reasons. First it was said this morning that Randy Arozarena ($ 4700) will not be in the lineup when he is placed on the paternity list. He has without a doubt been one of their hottest hitters, averaging 12.8 DKFPs over the last 10 games, including going 4-for-11 in this series. Eovaldi has also been better at home and posted a solid 2.36 FIP, a .271 wOBA and only 0.45 HR / 9. In three starts against this team, he kept them to seven races in 12 hits with 23 strikeouts in 19 1/3 innings.
Stud Hitter to pay for
Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals, $ 5100 – This man is simply burning right now. This calendar turned to September, and Albies has posted double-digit fantasy points in four straight games. He has gone 6-for-17 with a home run in all of them, seven RBIs and two singles. He could well extend the home run to five games against Sean Nolin ($ 5900). The left has only thrown 17 1⁄3 round in the majors, but has been marked for four home races as well as 11 races and 25 hits. Between his poor pitching and a Nationals bullpen that has been widely used so late, Albies is ready for another big night.
Save big by writing
Tyler Naquin, Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs, $ 2,900 – Naquin should pull the start for the Reds tonight against Alec Mills ($ 6,300). Mills has some really bad numbers against leftists this season, which includes a .375 wOBA, a 4.97 FIP and a 1.3 HR / 9. Then Naquin’s numbers are all against rights, where he has a .364 wOBA, a. 235 ISO and 18 of the 19 home races he has hit. Although the Chicago wind will not be very important tonight, Mills has seen the ball move out of the park seven of the 11 times here at Wrigley Field.
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