MLB best games: Baseball selections, predictions, odds to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for September 18th

MLB best games: Baseball selections, predictions, odds to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for September 18th

The MLB regular season ends, but there are 15 games to choose from on Saturday. Let’s break down some of my favorite efforts to target DraftKings Sportsbook.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds are subject to change.

Mets ML (-105)

The Mets’ season is almost dead, but they still have the chance to play spoiler for the Phillies. They stand out as a preferred target for the Sharps on Saturday, which unfortunately has caused this line to move a bit. Mets have been listed as high as +105 in this match, but I still think there is value with the current number.

Carlos Carrasco goes to the mound, and he has had an interesting season. He owns a terrible 5.59 ERA, but his 3.91 xFIP suggests he has been better than his traditional calculations indicate. His biggest problem has been getting through the first half. He owns a 6.52 FIP for the first time through the order, but that number drops to 2.90 after that. Batters should get better the more they meet you, not worse, so Carrasco seems to have a bit of luck in starting the game. If that happens, I like his chances of keeping Phillies’ offense in check.

Padres ML (+105)

There have been many bizarre stories during the season, and these teams have been part of the equation. Padres seemed like a deadly lock for a playoff spot, but a recent slip has left them outside and in. They are currently 1.5 games out of the last Wild Card place, and they have to jump two teams in the position.

One of these teams is the Cardinals, who looked good out of contention during the trade deadline. That said, they have won six straight games thanks to some veteran pitching options, including Adam Wainwright. Wainwright will take the hill on Saturday, and he has had a resurgence in 2021. He has hit a 2.88 ERA this season, even though he has just turned 40. He has been out of the light during the second half, and has added 2.02 ERA since the All-Star break.

It’s a nice story, but I’m taking my chances with Yu Darvish in this match. He is a more traditional version of a dominant pitcher, with 10.62 strikeouts per nine innings this season. He has struggled tremendously during the second half, but he is simply too talented to be an underdog in this fight.

Corbin burns over 8.5 strikeouts (-125)

This is a high number for a strikeout prop, but I still do not think it is high enough. Burnes has been one of the best strike throws in baseball this season, averaging 12.43 strikeouts per nine innings. Coming from a dominant 14 strikeout performance in his last outing, he hit 8.5 strikeouts in two of his last three starts.

Now he easily gets the best possible match from a strikeout perspective. He takes on the Cubs, who have swung and missed like crazy against right-handers this season. The egg 27.5% strikeout rate vs. right-handed since the All-Star break, and no other team is above 25.5%. Overall, the gap between the Brewers and the Marlins – which ranks second in the strikeout – is larger than the gap between the Marlins and the Reds (which ranks 11th). Burnes probably only needs six innings to reach nine strikeouts in this match, and he may be able to do it in five.

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I’m a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and can sometimes play on my personal account in the games I advise. Although I have expressed my personal views on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect DraftKing’s views (ies), and I may also distribute different games and strategies than those I recommend above. I am not employed by DraftKings and do not have access to non-public information.

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