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DraftKings Sportsbook Game notes
Biggest Moneyline favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the biggest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tyler Mahle, $ 9,500, Cincinnati Reds (-175) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks, (+ 155) – Important to note that this is a technical game two of the day, but it is not considered a double header. They will resume the game last night which was suspended due to the weather.
Mahle has been fantastic through his first three starts of the year, and has only allowed three runs in seven hits while striking out 22 to 14 innings of work. One of those games included Diamondbacks, where he only went four innings but gave up no races and struck out six. Mahle’s figures across the board are impressive with his 3.29 FIP, a 39.3% K% and only a 29.6% hard hit rate allowed. They scored five races last night, but an early Reds error resulted in only three of them being earned. D-Backs are not an offense to fear, and if Mahle continues to throw as well as he has, he could easily be one of the best pitchers on this slate. Not that we have many choices to begin with.
Other notable favorites: David Peterson ($ 9,800; -137) vs. Chicago Cubs
Highest projected total
Toronto Blue Jays (+102; 4.5 races) at Boston Red Sox (-118; 4.5 races) 10 races – Violations will certainly be plentiful in this game with Trent Thornton ($ 6,600) opening for Anthony Kay ($ 6000) against Garrett Richards ($ 7000). We have not seen much of Kay this season, but we can look back to 2020 and how much he struggled. His command was the biggest problem, posting a 6.0 BB / 9 to 21 rounds of work. Putting men at the base will later be a big problem for him, a situation he had a 7.26 FIP in. He has only thrown 38 1/3 rounds in his career, and we do not have many positive things to look at. Against this offense that shoots at all cylinders, this should be a tough place for Kay. Directed to the left, the Red Sox currently has a .329 wOBA, a .183 ISO and a 111 wRC +.
As for Richards, the beginning of his Red Sox career has been easy to forget. 5.32 FIP is slightly lower than 6.00 ERA, so it is not as if he has become unlucky. He has also struggled with the command and already has seven trips in 12 rounds. The only glimmer of hope for Richards is that the Blue Jays are very right-handed, a split he performs better in. The Lefties are the ones who get the best out of him, and the Blue Jays do not have many to throw at him. Either way, this is probably on the way to a very high scoring game and one you want a piece of. The Red Sox are currently 10-8 on strike while the Blue Jays are one of the league’s worst at 5-12.
Chicago White Sox on Cleveland Indians– 13 mph wind blowing in from left field.
Atlanta braves on New York Yankees– 17 mph wind blowing towards the right field.
Toronto Blue Jays on Boston Red Sox – Potentially light rain throughout the evening. 13 mph wind blowing towards the right field.
Brand to start
These statistics will reflect the 2020 figures up to 1 May.
Pitchers vs. Left-hand batteries
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Jacob Junis, .430, 6.99
Garrett Richards, .365, 5.38
Mitch Keller, .358, 8.44
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Ian Anderson, .201, 1.75
Zach Davies, .222, 3.34
Merrill Kelly, .227, 3.74
Pitchers vs. Right-handed batter
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Michael Wacha, .445, 6.19
Aaron Civale, .397, 4.85
Jakob Junis, .354, 5.13
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Garrett Richards, .258, 3.27
Ian Anderson, .269, 3.46
Tyler Mahle, .295, 3.15
Can build around
Tyler Mahle, Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks, $ 9,500 – We went with Luis Castillo last night and it was not good. A mistake in the first race did not help the case either, but wah, wah, wah, apologies, apologies. I like Mahle very much tonight going against the same team in “Game 2” tonight. As mentioned above, his numbers have been fantastic this season and meet a D-Backs team with only .299 wOBA, a .152 ISO, an 86 wRC + and a 24.5% K% against right-handers. With not much to pay for on this slate when pitching, Mahle sticks out like a sore thumb.
Stud Hitter to pay for
Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays, $ 5500 – Bogaerts has been a base machine this season and now draws a very favorable matchup, at home against the left Kay. He has been on a different level towards left-wingers to begin with, but when you mix in the numbers especially at home, they are huge. Since 2019 against leftists at Fenway, Bogaerts has a .361 wOBA, a .217 ISO and a 119 wRC +. He has only had 25 record appearances against left-wingers in 2021, but already has a .442 wOBA, a .217 ISO and a 189 wRC +. Simply put, this is his matchup.
Save Big by drawing
Kevin Kiermaier, Tampa Bay Rays on Kansas City Royals, $ 2300 – Not a lot of value on this slate in general, so I found myself going far down the board. Kiermaier has looked good since he was activated by the injury list due to a quad problem. In four games since, he has an average of 6.5 DKFP with four hits, one double and two RBI. He wants to meet Jakob Junis ($ 6400), which to the left has a .353 wOBA with a 4.50 FIP and a 42.5% hard hit rate since 2019. The nice thing about growing Kiermaier is that he does not have to do much to reach the value close to the rock minimum in price.
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