13 games on the slate tonight. It’s a Tuesday. Let’s go wild.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game notes
Biggest Moneyline favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the biggest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Lucas Giolito, $ 9,500, Chicago White Sox (-255) vs. Detroit Tigers (+205) – It’s been eight days since Giolito last took the mound, when his start was pushed back due to a finger injury. Apparently he cut his finger on a bottle? I mean, at least he did not go down without explaining himself first.
Giolito comes from his worst start to the season, when he was shot by the Red Sox. It is very likely that he tipped the field, when the Red Sox knocked him out in the first half and hit everything he threw. I am more than willing to throw this start, since he had been fantastic in three starts before. Tonight he meets the Tigers who have a decent pop against right-handers, but that’s about where the positive spins end. They have a team of .291 wOBA with .176 ISO, 88 wRC + and 27.3% K%. Giolito relies on three lanes, a fastball, prey and slider. Appropriately, the Tigers rank 28th, 12th and 18th against these courses. I’m more than comfortable supporting him on a relegation start against the Tigers.
Other notable favorites: Charlie Morton ($ 8000; -177) vs. Chicago Cubs
Highest projected total
New York Yankees (-190; 5.5 races) at Baltimore Orioles (+160; 3.5 races) 9.5 races – These two teams are again involved in the highest estimated sum of the night. I was on the side of the courtyard last night, and it hit with ease, as they combined for six races on a nine-run projection. This Yankees offense is unreliable at this time and has an average of 2.9 runs over their last 10 GAMES!!!!
To take the mound to the Orioles is Bruce Zimmermann ($ 6000) which is to start its fourth start. He has allowed three races in three of his four starts, and has a total of 5.08 FIP, only a 6.2 K / 9 and a 29.4% hard hit rate allowed. But again, it’s hard to trust this Yankees offense, which was just strangled by Matt Harvey last night. The Yankees have decent numbers to the left with a .314 wOBA, a .150 ISO and a 102 wRC +. For me, I simply can not support this team until I see consistency. In 5.5 races, I would strongly have to consider underestimating their team overall and would even underestimate this game overall.
No weather problems!
Brand to start
These statistics will reflect the 2020 figures up to 1 May.
Pitchers vs. Left-handed batter
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Frankie Montas, .444, 6.41
Adrian Houser, .421, 6.96
Zach Eflin, .381, 5.27
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Ian Anderson, .201, 1.75
Merrill Kelly, .227, 3.74
Walker Buehler, .240, 3.40
Pitchers vs. Right-handed batter
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Carlos Martinez, .469, 7.49
Trevor Williams, .453, 8.57
Michael Wacha, .445, 6.19
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Cristian Javier, .208, 4.34
Lucas Giolito, .243, 2.96
Marco Gonzales, .247, 3.40
Can build around
Max Scherzer, Citizens of Washington vs. Toronto Blue Jays, $ 10,900 – It’s very close to me between Giolito and Scherzer. Honestly, you can play BOTH if you want to be fancy, as it will give you an average of $ 3700 per hit. That said, I really like this place for Scherzer against a Blue Jays team that has not beaten right-handers hard. This season, the Blue Jays have a .292 wOBA, a .140 ISO and an 87 wRC + against right-handers. They hover around the league average in K% of 24%, but Scherzer of course has such a high ceiling when it comes to strikes. He has reached nine in three of his four starts and has generated a 15.7% turn-and-miss rate. It’s a very nice place for National aces.
Stud Hitter to pay for
Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox on New York Mets, $ 5700 – When we talk about elite hitters, Bogaerts usually does not enter the conversation yet. I think it’s just a matter of time before he enters that realm. He has crushed the ball so far and enters this game averaging 8.8 DKFP and 9.9 over the last 10 games. Tonight he meets the left David Peterson ($ 7500) which has really gotten off to a rough start. In three starts against the Phillies and Cubs, Peterson has been marked for 10 races on 13 hits through 13 1⁄3 innings. Righties have already come to him for a .363 wOBA, a 5.41 FIP and three home runs.
Bogaerts continues to be a nightmare for opposing leftists and has a .452 wOBA, a .276 ISO and a 196 wRC + against it in the beginning. It’s in line with where he was last season, and it’s simply a matchup I do not want to fade. He’s one of the more expensive options to pay for, but I expect the Red Sox will knock Peterson out of this game early.
Save Big by drawing
Austin Meadows, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Oakland Athletics, $ 3600 – Meadows has dropped quite a bit in salary, making him a really solid value against Frankie Montas ($ 7,300). Last season against the left, Montas could not get them out, posting a .444 wOBA, a 6.41 FIP and six of the 10 home races he allowed. The Rays continue to use Meadows against lefties, which has driven down his numbers, but against righties he has been excellent. He has a .381 wOBA, a .246 ISO and a 156 wRC + against him this season. I’ll be happy to take him for $ 3600.
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