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Championship week is upon us. Conference tournaments are played all over the country, and by the end of Sunday you just have to wait for the nomination committee’s decisions.
In the meantime, we update our projected field of 64 daily throughout the week.
In our final update, we now know the 16 host pages, as the NCAA announced them Sunday night. However, if you have been following these estimates all week, there were no surprises on the host pages.
The race for the last places among the top eight is close. Mississippi State, Notre Dame, Stanford and Texas Tech are all very close. Mississippi State and Notre Dame get nods to the last two places here – Notre Dame for its ACC regular season championship and 16 wins away from home, most of any of the four teams, and Mississippi State for its third place in the SEC.
This projection includes the unusual arrangement of South Carolina hosting a regional as seed # 2, with Old Dominion as seed # 1. ODU did not bid to host and is therefore not on the list of 20 teams that the selection committee can choose from to host regions. But Monarchs ranks No. 13 in the RPI (the best from a conference U.S. team), is 20-6 away from home, 14-6 against the top 50 RPI teams and 21-11 against the top 100 RPI teams. These calculations are all favorable compared to other potential seeds No. 1.
A traveling No. 1 seed would be unconventional in the modern version of the NCAA Tournament. The selection committee has not sent a top seed on the road since 2010 when Florida State was the number 1 seed in the Norwich Regional, hosting Connecticut. It used to be a more common part of the NCAA tournament, but as more schools have invested more money in their facilities, more schools have met the hosting requirements.
The race for the last places in the NCAA tournament is also close. There are more than half a dozen teams that have strong demands on the last three big bids. Finally, Alabama, Fairfield and Louisiana State get nodded here. Fairfield is an extreme outlier that has only played one conference plan (like the one dominated), and there are some who guess how the committee will evaluate it, but with RPI # 2, wrong as that calculation may be, the guess here is that Stags is in . Alabama and LSU both rank in the top 35 on the RPI and top five on the strength of the form. These two numbers can carry the day.
But including Ball State, Georgia, Long Beach State, Louisville and Michigan strong issues and the committee will have its work cut out for it.
|1. (1) Arkansas ^ * #||1. (16) Louisiana Tech ^|
|2. Maryland||2. Oklahoma State|
|3. Northeast *||Louisiana State|
|4. Jacksonville * #||4. Southern Alabama *|
|1. (2) Vanderbilt ^||1. (15) Oregon ^|
|2. Virginia Commonwealth * #||2. Gonzaga * #|
|3. Wright State * #||3. UC Santa Barbara|
|4. New Jersey Tech * #||Rider * #|
|Knoxville, Tenn.||Gainesville, Fla.|
|1. (3) Tennessee ^||1. (14) Florida ^|
|2. Charlotte||2. Florida State|
|3. Campbell||Arizona State|
|4. Southeast Missouri State * #||4. South Florida * #|
|Fort Worth, Texas||Greenville, NC|
|1. (4) Texas Christian ^ * #🔺||1. (13) East Carolina ^|
|2. Miami||2. Duke * #|
|3. Dallas Baptist * #||3. Freedom|
|4. Central Connecticut State * #||4. Norfolk State * #|
|1. (5) Texas ^ 🔻||1. (12) Mississippi ^ 🔻|
|2. Nebraska * #||2. Southern Mississippi|
|3. Alabama||3. Virginia|
|4. McNeese State * #||4. Samford * #|
|Tucson, Ariz.||Columbia, SC|
|1. (6) Arizona ^ * #||1. (11) Old Dominion * # 🔺|
|2. North Carolina State||2. South Carolina ^|
|Fairfield||3. North Carolina|
|4. Grand Canyon * #||4. Presbyterian * #|
|South Bend, Ind.||Lubbock, Texas|
|1. (7) Notre Dame ^||1. (10) Texas Tech ^|
|2. Connecticut * #||2. UCLA|
|3. The State of Indiana||3. Pittsburgh|
|4. Central Michigan * #||4th Army * #|
|Starkville, miss.||Stanford, California.|
|1. (8) Mississippi State ^||1. (9) Stanford ^|
|2. Georgia Tech||2. UC Irvine * #|
|3. Oregon States||3. Nevada * #|
|4. Southern * #||4. North Dakota State * #|
^ Host school denotes
* Denotes automatic qualification
# Denotes automatic bidding
Bold denotes new layer to field
Regional Hosts for 2021 NCAA Baseball Tournament Announced
The selection committee announced on Sunday the 16 regional hosts for the NCAA tournament.
Last Four In
First Four Out
Next four out
Long Beach State